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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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