A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
