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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd